Beyond the Charts Ep6: An Institutional Lens
9/30/2025, 2:25:09 PM
Strong U.S. data, dovish Fed signals, and a market narrative of resilience. Gold up, stocks at records, and the USD flexing on strong U.S. data. What does it all mean for traders? Step inside Ep6 of Beyond the Charts to learn how the markets and institutions interpreted the signals.
The week of September 23–26 was short but packed with pivotal signals. GDP smashed forecasts, housing soared, durable goods surprised, and Powell’s dovish balance kept traders leaning risk-on.
Let’s break down the week, day by day, through an institutional lens.
Tuesday, September 23
PMI misses spark diverging paths.
Data Insights: The Pulse of the Economy
Manufacturing PMI: 52.0 (vs. 52.2 forecast, 53.0 previous) – A slight miss, yet still in expansion territory.
Services PMI: 53.9 (vs. 54.0 forecast, 54.5 previous) – Another minor disappointment, but expansion persists.
Powell’s Speech: With a dovish tone, he steered the focus away from inflation concerns and towards job growth, stressing a data-dependent approach.
Market Response:
S&P 500: +0.5%
NASDAQ: +0.7%
Gold: +0.8%
USD: -0.4% (EUR/USD +0.2%, GBP/USD +0.3%, USD/JPY -0.5%)
Trader Insight: The Bigger Picture Matters
Despite minor PMI misses, institutional players chose to focus on Powell's reassuring signals. The message? The Fed remains patient and open to adjusting its policies.
Key Takeaway:
It’s not just about the numbers, but the overarching reassurance that shapes market positioning.
Wednesday, September 24
Housing strength signalled consumer confidence.
Data Insights: A Real Estate Renaissance
New Home Sales: 800k (vs. 650k forecast, 664k previous) – A stunning 20.5% surge, hitting levels last seen 3.5 years ago.
Crude Oil Inventories: -0.607M (vs. -0.800M forecast, -9.285M previous) – Suggesting steady demand amidst mild drawdowns.
Market Response: Housing Gains Propel Investor Optimism
Homebuilder Stocks: +1.2%
S&P 500: +0.6%
NASDAQ: +0.5%
Gold: -0.2%
USD: +0.3% (EUR/USD -0.3%, GBP/USD -0.2%, USD/JPY +0.4%)
Trader Insight: The Housing Sector as a Harbinger of Growth
Institutional analysts hailed the housing surge as a distinctive sign of consumer resilience, driven by favourable interest rates.
Key Takeaway:
Keep an eye on housing, it’s often the first indicator of broader economic trends.
Thursday, September 25
A data double whammy reassured the market.
Data Insights: Strength in Numbers
Durable Goods Orders: +2.9% (vs. +0.3% forecast, -2.7% previous) – A robust recovery in business investment.
U.S. GDP (Q2): +3.8% (vs. +3.3% forecast, -0.5% previous) – A stellar rebound fueled by consumer spending.
Jobless Claims: 218k (vs. 233k forecast, 232k previous) – Indicating a stronger labor market.
Existing Home Sales: 4.0M (vs. 3.96M forecast, 4.01M previous) – Stability persists despite soaring interest rates.
Market Response: Strength Propelled Records
Industrials: +0.7%
S&P 500: +1% (hitting record highs)
Dow: +0.8%
Gold: -0.5%
USD: +0.5% (EUR/USD -0.5%, GBP/USD -0.4%, USD/JPY +0.6%)
Trader Insight: Confidence Reigns Supreme
Institutions saw the day’s data as strong evidence of economic resilience, leading to renewed enthusiasm for risk assets.
Key Takeaway:
Aligning positive signals across growth, jobs, and consumer confidence builds institutional conviction.
Friday, September 26
Inflation steady as calm prevails.
Data Insights: The Inflation Dilemma
PCE (Fed’s Trusted Gauge):
Headline YoY: 2.9% (right on target with forecasts)
Core MoM: 0.2% (matching expectations).
Market Response: Stability Breeds Optimism
S&P 500: +0.5%
NASDAQ: +0.6%
Dow: +0.4% |
Gold: +0.3%
USD: -0.2% (EUR/USD +0.1%, USD flat).
Trader Insight: Predictability is Key
With inflation holding steady, markets enjoyed a sense of calm, providing ample room for the Fed to remain patient.
Key Takeaway:
In the absence of inflation fears, institutions lean toward risk-on strategies.
The Big Picture: A Cohesive Strength Amidst Shifting Tides
Last week demonstrated remarkable resilience:
GDP growth shattered expectations at 3.8%, easing recession worries.
The housing market flourished, boosting consumer sentiment significantly.
Durable goods orders rebounded, signaling business confidence.
PCE inflation remained stable at 2.9%, allowing for Fed flexibility.
Last week reinforced a timeless lesson: numbers alone don’t drive markets, the narrative behind them does. Institutions don’t chase every decimal miss. They zoom out, align the signals, and build conviction.
Beyond the Charts Ep7 premieres this Sunday at 4 p.m. Dubai time. Subscribe to the FundingPips YouTube channel and hit the bell to never miss the next institutional breakdown. 🎉 Congratulations to the Winners of the two 50K challenge giveaway.
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